Is this color prediction chart accurate (or useful)?

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jakaufmann
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Is this color prediction chart accurate (or useful)?

Post: # 70192Post jakaufmann
Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:01 pm

As I've been doing research on planning/selecting rose varieties for crosses, I came across this chart for predicting the likelihood of colors for the cross.

Does anyone know if this is either accurate or useful?

https://www.rosesgalore.com/predict-ros ... color.html

Plazbo
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Re: Is this color prediction chart accurate (or useful)?

Post: # 70193Post Plazbo
Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:34 pm

Originally created by Steve McCulloch I believe.

It was the results the creator researched. So there's some value in that but results are likely to vary due to using different cultivars. Would pay more attention to the higher numbers than the lower numbers as the trend of what to expect. I mean the chart was 2% yellow from pink x pink, wouldn't count on seeing that though as it's likely highly dependent on cultivars used.

Here's a link to a webarchive about the chart

http://web.archive.org/web/200502071746 ... dlings.htm

Karl K
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Re: Is this color prediction chart accurate (or useful)?

Post: # 70198Post Karl K
Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:17 am

Plazbo wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:34 pm
I mean the chart was 2% yellow from pink x pink, wouldn't count on seeing that though as it's likely highly dependent on cultivars used.
Definitely true. And another fact worth noting is that Modern Roses 5 contains only roses that have been introduced, which must bias the results. Crossing pink x pink will likely yield a lot of insipid blush-white offspring that aren't worth a second glance. Thus, the 2% yellow is probably far more than one would find if ALL the progeny of those pink x pink crosses could be counted.

On a side-note, I did my own little research project using the same Modern Roses 5 back in my college days. I had a notion, or I read somewhere, that the tendency to sport runs in families. This is not limited to sports producing other sports, which is very common. But "sporters" sometimes producing sporting offspring. For example, Talisman [Ophelia x Souv. de Claudius Pernet] has been just as "sporty" as Ophelia. The addition of yellow pigment actually increased the range of possible sports.

I went through MR5 and put a mark beside every variety that originated as a sport. I excluded climbing sports because they are just too common. I then wrote each cultivar name and its sport-parent on a slip of paper. When I finished that tedious work, I grouped the slips by sport-parent.

Phew! That is the sort of work that really should be done on a computer, but I did it all before home computers were available. I was lucky to have a pocket calculator back then.

Among other things, I learned that published reports of parentage are not entirely reliable. And some alleged "sports" were actually seedlings. Someone, somewhere, just guessed. The guess got repeated, while the "true facts" waited for someone else to bring them to light.

Karl

jakaufmann
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Re: Is this color prediction chart accurate (or useful)?

Post: # 70205Post jakaufmann
Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:24 am

Karl K wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:17 am
Phew! That is the sort of work that really should be done on a computer, but I did it all before home computers were available. I was lucky to have a pocket calculator back then.

Among other things, I learned that published reports of parentage are not entirely reliable. And some alleged "sports" were actually seedlings. Someone, somewhere, just guessed. The guess got repeated, while the "true facts" waited for someone else to bring them to light.
That sounds like a lot of work...even with computers! It seems you're quite knowledgable on rose parentages, etc. I really appreciate all your insights so far on my posts!

On the note of parentage not always being reliable, that's something I've come across quite a lot as I've been putting together a database of potential roses to use for breeding. For example, the Modern Rose database on the ARS website often states only two roses for a cross (i.e. Rose A x Rose B), but Help Me Find states that a specific rose is actually something like "Rose A x (Rose B x Rose C). That, I'm sure, isn't even where you're necessarily going with your point, but it's still relevant to my research so far.

At this point, I'm trying to do a lot of research on the history and lineages of certain roses and traits so I have an idea which kinds of roses to choose for my own breeding program. At this point, I feel like I could go down a rabbit trail with every rose and end up still having lots to learn! On the one hand, I'm afraid to choose the wrong roses to start, but I guess I need to start somewhere. So far, I've been trying to look through this forum, the RHA booklets, and some other sources for suggested roses for breeding. Then, I'm trying to determine why those roses are suggested (for example, Queen Elizabeth as a mother is quite popular) so that I can decide if I want to use those specifically or some others.

Again, thanks so much Karl for your insights! I feel a bit bad that I'm not at the point to share too much insight on my part--I'm mostly just soaking up your knowledge and everyone else's here, but I hope to eventually share knowledge with others like you have been with me!

Josh

jakaufmann
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Re: Is this color prediction chart accurate (or useful)?

Post: # 70206Post jakaufmann
Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:27 am

Plazbo wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:34 pm
Originally created by Steve McCulloch I believe.

It was the results the creator researched.
Okay, that makes a lot of sense. I guess if I want to use this as a tool, I'd need to do some digging as to which roses he used for breeding. Then, it can give me a slightly better idea. Otherwise, the chart may not be too helpful. If that your thought? Do you think there is something else that exists which could be helpful for choosing roses to breed for specific traits (specifically color)?

Thanks!

Plazbo
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Re: Is this color prediction chart accurate (or useful)?

Post: # 70208Post Plazbo
Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:06 am

I'd say the chart is somewhat useful if you look at the percentages over 20% as there's obviously some general trend there that's occurred over a bunch of different roses. You just have accept that unexpected results can and do happen. As the chart shows though, if you're looking to maximise your results of a specific colour, you're best off breeding the colour to a rose that's the same colour.

jakaufmann
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Re: Is this color prediction chart accurate (or useful)?

Post: # 70209Post jakaufmann
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:36 am

Plazbo wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:06 am
I'd say the chart is somewhat useful if you look at the percentages over 20% as there's obviously some general trend there that's occurred over a bunch of different roses. You just have accept that unexpected results can and do happen. As the chart shows though, if you're looking to maximise your results of a specific colour, you're best off breeding the colour to a rose that's the same colour.
Yes, that makes a lot of sense! As I've looked at parentages of some roses, I was surprised that a specific color came from that combination. However, like you said, there is likely a higher chance of, say, getting a red rose from two red roses.

Karl K
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Re: Is this color prediction chart accurate (or useful)?

Post: # 70214Post Karl K
Thu Aug 08, 2019 1:32 pm

jakaufmann wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:24 am
For example, the Modern Rose database on the ARS website often states only two roses for a cross (i.e. Rose A x Rose B), but Help Me Find states that a specific rose is actually something like "Rose A x (Rose B x Rose C).
Josh
Josh,
The one that really threw me was the old habit (19th and early 20th centuries) of giving parentage as (A x B), but further searching reveals that the plant that was introduced turned up in the 3rd generation. Same parents, just not a simple cross. In some cases the breeders told the tale, but in other cases someone else spilled the beans.

Examples:
Spotless Gold, Spotless Yellow and Spotless Pink are all F3. The first two from 'Goldilocks', the third from 'Chic'.
http://bulbnrose.x10.mx/Roses/breeding/ ... t1979.html

Sea Foam (White Dawn x Pinocchio) x [(White Dawn x Pinocchio) x (White Dawn x Pinocchio)]
http://bulbnrose.x10.mx/Roses/breeding/ ... m1977.html

Enchantress / Enchanter (HT) [(Mme Caroline Testout x unnamed seedling) 3rd generation]
Cardinal (HT) [(Liberty x unnamed carmine seedling) 3rd generation]
These two were the parents of 'Radiance'. Cook's style of breeding may explain why 'Radiance' has been such a difficult parent. It does produce healthy, vigorous, fragrant offspring, but mostly in "Radiance pink". Line breeding leads to the sort of stability we expect in species.
http://bulbnrose.x10.mx/Roses/Rose_Pict ... iance.html

"Gloire Lyonnaise was another difficult Rose to place, notwithstanding M. Guillot stated it to be a cross between Baroness Rothschild and Mme. Falcot, although the progeny of the first and second crossings had to be crossed again before securing this 'yellow Hybrid Perpetual,' as it was then called."
http://bulbnrose.x10.mx/Roses/Rose_Pict ... naise.html
Karl

Don
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Re: Is this color prediction chart accurate (or useful)?

Post: # 70225Post Don
Sat Aug 10, 2019 11:25 pm

The genetics of flower color biochemistry are pretty well understood but for any particular cultivar the genes are not. For that reason the best predictive tool is experience. In particular, Paul Barden has often posted here about what to expect from many of the roses in his own stable.

Steve Mculloch's article is interesting as a statistical study but not useful as a predictive tool.

This paper is the best place to start to understand rose pigments, and my article titled Fun With Color in, iirc, the winter 2008 RHA newsletter may be worth a look too.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf ... .199106541

I'm away from my pc, remind me by email and I'll send you both. Don, at rosebreeders.org.
What doesn't kill them makes them stronger.

jakaufmann
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Re: Is this color prediction chart accurate (or useful)?

Post: # 70226Post jakaufmann
Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:50 am

Thanks. Don! I'll check out that link, and I look forward to reading your article!

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